WASP is the latest term in cricket which means “winning & Score Predictor”. This is most discussed topic right now what the hell is this things doing it. Now I try to explain it :
In November’2012 New Zealand’s Sky Sport’s TV used WASP for first time in broadcast domestic level limited over’s cricket. This technique is based on the model of UC (University of Canterbury research) PhD graduate Dr. Scott Brooker and his supervisor Dr Seamus Hogan. Some people are given the right information and some made jokes about it. However, the WASP is the latest techniques, which predicts a team playing (Winning and losing matches) with fresh performance depends on its past performance. This tool is display on the right side of the TV screen on the channel broadcasting the match: WASP, whose value was changing according to the match progressed – sometimes 50 %, sometimes 48 %.
In the first innings, this tool gives a predicted score of the team who is batting. In the second innings, it tells the Probability of the batting team winning the match. This tool is also considered pitch and condition of ground also for prediction. If India played match in sub-continent then it shows higher value of winning and if plays in foreign countries then it show little bit lower value. The model is based on a database of all games (ODI & T20) played since last 2006 between the top 8 countries.
Dr Hogan said the estimates were constructed from a dynamic programme rather than just fitting curves through the data. It measures of how well the teams have done to that point; it doesn’t forecasts of how well they will do from the specific point.
A basic explanation of how the scoring predictor works has been given by Dr Brooker’s mentor, Dr Seamus Hogan, on his blog. I am explaining it:
The no. of runs you can expect in the rest of the innings is represented by V (b, w), at a stage where b legitimate balls have been bowled and w wickets have fallen. Clearly, in a 50-over match, V (300, w) = 0 (no more runs can be scored when b = 300). This is used to go backward to predict the value of V at a given b and w.
The formula to be applied is:
V (b, w) = r (b, w) + p (b, w) V (b + 1, w + 1) + (1 – p (b, w)) V (300, w)
The above formula covered all the three terms which is happened in next ball:
1). r (b, w) – It covers the chances of some runs that can be scored on that ball (the quantity r stands for runs that will be scored on the next ball)
2). second term covers the chance of a wicket falling (the quantity p stands for the probability of a wicket falling on the next ball)
3). the third & last term covers the chance of a wicket not falling.
The system is fully based on the probability axioms, pitch and condition with past records.